Walter Peyton stepped away from football after his very last
game back on January 10th, 1988; a 21-17 playoff loss to the
Washington Redskins. When he hung up his cleats he had rushed for 16,726 yards
in his career. A total that many thought would never be broken.
Fifteen years later though, Payton’s record would fall at
the hands of the Dallas Cowboys’ Emmitt Smith who would go on to rush for a total
of 18,355 yards for his career. Smith played 15 years in the league helping him
amass what may be an insurmountable rushing total for any running back currently
in the league and possibly for any running back who will enter the league in
the future.
The best thing about Smith’s accomplishment is that he wasn’t
the best running back in the league even in his era. Most people would agree
that the best running back during his era was Barry Sanders who had a chance to
break Payton’s record but decided to walk away from the game after ten years in
the league.
No, Smith wasn’t the biggest, the fastest or the most
elusive but he was probably one of the toughest backs to ever play the
position. He played with all kinds of injuries throughout his career but the
game that probably typifies his toughness the most was a season finale against
the New York Giants back in 1993.
Smith ran for 168
yards and caught ten passes all while playing with a separated shoulder. It’s
the kind of gutsy, determined performance that shows why Smith was so
successful during his career. But that still doesn’t explain why no other running
back will reach his mark.
There are plenty of really talented running backs in the
league right now like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Maurice
Jones-Drew and Michael Turner but none of them will reach Smith’s mark. It has a
lot more to do with the way offenses are trending than how much talent or
toughness these backs possess.
Back in Payton and Smith’s eras, a good running game was the
key to winning in the NFL. Sure you had
guys like Dan Marino and Jim Kelly putting up insane passing statistics but nearly
every Super Bowl had a 1,000-yard rusher playing for one or both of the two
teams involved.
This was especially true during the 15 years Smith played in
the league. All but one Super Bowl had a 1,000-yard rusher on one or both of its
teams. By comparison only one of the last four Super Bowls had a 1,000-yard
rusher on either team.
The reason for that is because of the league-wide trend
towards passing offenses. Accurate, strong-armed quarterbacks are more in
demand and as witnessed by this offseason’s free agent signings, wide receivers
are a bigger commodity too.
Running backs on the other hand aren’t in demand as much as
they were in the past. It was nothing to see one or two running backs go in the
first ten picks of a draft back in Smith and Payton’s eras. You hardly see more
than one running back get chosen in the first round of the draft nowadays.
As more teams try to mimic the quick-strike, high scoring
offenses like the ones found in New Orleans, Green Bay, New England and
Detroit, teams have placed less of an emphasis on the run. Besides that, it has
proven difficult to keep running backs healthy from year-to-year.
Running backs haven’t been as reliable of an investment as
they were in the past but defenses have also begun to incorporate bigger
linemen and schemes that take away running lanes.
Teams like the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, San
Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers effectively shut down rushing attacks
with their front seven allowing them to concentrate on forcing their opponents to
make mistakes through the air.
But New York was the only one of those teams that made it to
the Super Bowl last February. While having a strong defense was instrumental in
getting those teams into the playoffs, the team with the most reliable passing
attack is the one that resulted in a Super Bowl appearance.
In the past six years, the Giants, Steelers, Patriots and Indianapolis
Colts have all been to the Super Bowl twice. All had strong passing offenses
and so did the New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in
their lone appearances.
This also explains why Peyton Manning was in such demand the
past couple of weeks. No matter how well a team runs the ball or plays defense,
you have to have a potent passing game if you want to have a shot at the title.
And sadly this trend doesn’t look like it will be changing anytime soon.
So as we enter the 2012 season, only two active running
backs have more than 10,000 rushing yards for their career. Sadly, neither one
is close enough to catch Smith before they retire but could there be someone on
the horizon?
The only running back currently in the league that has a
shot to unseat Smith is Adrian Peterson who has averaged 1,350 yards rushing
over his five year career. At his current rate he would have to play at least eight
more years in the league to best Smith’s record which isn’t impossible but
highly unlikely.
The eight years is doable but I doubt he can sustain that
level of production for that long, especially with the amount of punishment he
takes. Then again, no one foresaw Smith breaking Payton’s record either.
Do you think Emmitt Smith's rushing record will be broken and if so, do you think any current running back will break it? We want to know what you think.
Roosevelt Hall is an NFL Blogger for The Sport Mentalist and an NBA Blogger for The Sport Mentalist 2. He is also a Sports Reporter for Pro Sports Lives. He can be contacted at RHall_TPFB@Yahoo.com and be sure to follow him on Twitter @sportmentalist.
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